Wake-up Call

 has weighed in with some comments that the new vote should be seen as a referendum on Euro membership - for which there is still healthy support among Greeks. While we can expect Greece to continue to be part of the headlines, let us have a look at some more tangible events*  scheduled for Wednesday, May 16.

• Apr. US Housing Starts & Building Permits (12:30 GMT) to rise? The improvements in the housing market, which we have suggested have finally bottomed, were underlined yesterday by the impressive (well, by the standards of recent years, at least) NAHB Housing Market Index. The index rose to 29 in May from 24 a month ago driven equally by current (30 from 25) and future sales (34 from 31). It is the highest level in exactly five years as we have to go back to May 2007 to see a higher reading (30). Turning to today's report on Housing Starts and Building Permits they have shown similar signs of improvement of late with the forward-looking permits series up 13.9% in the first three months of the year compared to -8.9% in the same period last year. Year-on-year permits are up 33.1%; not even in the First-time Homebuyer Tax Credit-distorting 2010 did permits rise this fast. Consensus looks for starts and permits to rise to 685k (+4.7% m/m) and 730k (+0.6%), respectively.

• Apr. US Industrial Production (13:15) to resume growth trend: While Industrial Production has failed to impress in neither February or March (both missed expectations handsomely) the keen eye may have spotted that both 'prior numbers' were revised significantly higher in line with the solid readings seen this year in the ISM Manufacturing Index. The same held true for March, which was originally estimated to show stagnation month-on-month despite a solid ISM Manufacturing Index print of 53.4 – will we see another revision to Industrial Production? For April, consensus certainly keeps its optimistic hat on with a forecast of a 0.6% m/m increase  - which is understandable from an ISM Manufacturing point of view. Also, we must remember that Industrial Production consists of 1) Manufacturing, 2) Utilities and 3) Mining with the latter two being likely greatly affected by the abnormal weather seen earlier this year.

• US FOMC Minutes (18:00) to confirm hawkish statement? The April 24-25 FOMC meeting saw a somewhat more hawkish tone struck by the members than markets were expecting (see John Hardy's take on the April FOMC meeting) even if Bernanke tried his best in the press conference afterwards. Today we get the Minutes from the meeting, which - even if it confirms the hawkishness('ish) - may have been rendered obsolete by the renewed turmoil in Greece. Furthermore, the recent slowdown in economic indicators may have the members worried (or soon will be) that their April forecast boosts (GDP: 2.4-2.9% this year, Unemployment Rate: 7.8-8%, Core PCE: 1.9-2%) may have been too optimistic, at least when speaking of GDP. We continue with our 2% GDP forecast for now though as stressed several times the risks have moved mainly to the upside.

* Keep an eye out for UK labour market data (08:30 GMT) and Eurozone CPI and Trade Balance reports (09:00) as well.